A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."