Just eight weeks ago that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager admonished him over failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the side's wider issues.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. After Rogers drilled in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and roared. The team were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit a mere three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Additionally, they have not been entirely convincing during this run, even as the positive results have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, on just two occasions have Villa posted an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a team which has just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to rescue them with two crisp finishes. This occurred away to Leeds, it happened in London, and again against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents registered more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
A statistical correction might be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Maybe within that lies the potential for a sustained push, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a hunt for the title and appearing as a vital England player.
This winning streak should be enjoyed for the very reason that it appears so improbable. When the hero positioned himself before the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.